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Commodities · Published research

Historical Accuracy Dashboard

Chanan ZevinFounder & CEO · Insightful Data Technologies

Explore the existing commodities simulation record and its limits.

Illustration of commodity materials
Simulated ending equity$160,013
Simulated net P&L$60,013
Maximum simulated drawdown12.09%
Days in published record302

How the simulation evolved

USD equity from a $100,000 starting balance. Both lines are retrospective calculations.

Long-only UP simulationEqual-weight market reference
$165,000$127,500$90,000
30 Jun 202510 Sept 2026

The calendar axis preserves gaps between observations. Initial balance is shown immediately before the first recorded day. The market reference is not a live portfolio or an external investable index.

Risk along the way

Decline from the simulation’s previous high, including its starting balance. Zero means the record is at its running peak.

0.0%-6.5%-13.0%
30 Jun 202510 Sept 2026

Maximum drawdown is recomputed from every published daily equity observation.

What this record can — and cannot — tell us

The published strategy ends above its starting capital, but experienced a material decline from a previous high. Ending return alone does not describe the path of risk.

Full-sample direction and price accuracy are not available in this export. The existing source dashboard shows a direction-accuracy subset limited to dates at or above 60%; that subset is not an overall performance record. No headline accuracy is calculated from it here.

Open the existing Commodities dashboard ↗
Method and source

Long-only on UP signals; DOWN or flat means no position. Equal weights across active UP instruments. Signal-date close to next-session close. Published costs: 1 basis point commission-equivalent plus 1 basis point slippage per position. 7 source rows without a return are excluded. Instrument coverage varies by date.

The aggregate export does not identify contract expiries or roll conventions. It must not be treated as a verified futures trading track record.

Source: the simulation export from the existing Commodities dashboard linked above. Every dated row is retained, including negative days. The charts are a saved snapshot and do not refresh automatically.

All 302 daily observations
Published Commodities simulation — all dated observations, USD
DateSimulated equityMarket referenceDaily simulated P&LUP positions
2025-07-01$102,182.38$102,182.38$2,182.381
2025-07-02$101,835.85$101,680.47-$346.535
2025-07-03$101,210.83$100,689.17-$625.035
2025-07-04$101,800.15$101,278.49$589.326
2025-07-07$103,169.79$102,648.13$1,369.647
2025-07-08$101,895.72$101,622.49-$1,274.063
2025-07-09$102,319.84$101,843.03$424.114
2025-07-10$103,759.96$103,170.95$1,440.135
2025-07-11$104,379.81$103,392.60$619.856
2025-07-14$104,200.61$102,762.74-$179.215
2025-07-15$104,406.36$102,906.18$205.766
2025-07-16$104,622.63$103,190.03$216.275
2025-07-17$105,390.48$103,759.59$767.854
2025-07-18$104,871.47$103,187.34-$519.015
2025-07-21$105,089.05$102,812.94$217.585
2025-07-22$103,949.54$101,816.70-$1,139.516
2025-07-23$104,002.63$102,067.54$53.095
2025-07-24$103,084.30$101,197.54-$918.336
2025-07-25$102,394.96$100,508.20-$689.357
2025-07-28$103,800.71$101,913.95$1,405.767
2025-07-29$103,396.06$101,727.32-$404.656
2025-07-30$96,875.89$98,210.15-$6,520.184
2025-07-31$96,757.43$97,558.57-$118.465
2025-08-01$95,922.31$96,619.24-$835.116
2025-08-04$95,659.98$96,356.90-$262.337
2025-08-05$95,666.75$96,363.68$6.777
2025-08-06$95,912.09$96,466.77$245.346
2025-08-07$96,564.92$96,568.71$652.835
2025-08-08$95,384.86$95,746.56-$1,180.065
2025-08-11$94,160.19$94,580.29-$1,224.675
2025-08-12$94,298.61$94,718.71$138.427
2025-08-13$94,578.93$95,017.10$280.325
2025-08-14$94,743.13$95,250.40$164.195
2025-08-15$94,388.36$95,314.93-$354.774
2025-08-18$92,645.69$93,644.61-$1,742.676
2025-08-19$93,279.27$94,350.83$633.594
2025-08-20$93,577.84$95,346.95$298.574
2025-08-21$94,908.33$95,339.72$1,330.483
2025-08-22$94,763.19$95,766.52-$145.134
2025-08-25$94,896.63$95,100.19$133.444
2025-08-26$94,856.84$96,055.73-$39.803
2025-08-27$96,182.27$97,209.01$1,325.445
2025-08-28$97,382.66$98,393.47$1,200.395
2025-08-29$99,105.65$99,958.75$1,722.994
2025-09-02$100,077.63$99,648.46$971.984
2025-09-03$99,407.43$98,961.71-$670.206
2025-09-04$99,032.06$98,343.33-$375.375
2025-09-05$99,766.52$99,113.23$734.466
2025-09-08$99,926.92$99,185.83$160.416
2025-09-09$100,276.07$99,339.83$349.156
2025-09-10$99,991.33$98,702.73-$284.744
2025-09-11$100,622.97$99,202.83$631.653
2025-09-12$101,512.64$101,162.31$889.674
2025-09-15$102,328.78$102,069.95$816.146
2025-09-16$101,515.50$101,261.50-$813.286
2025-09-17$100,859.38$99,938.13-$656.125
2025-09-18$100,940.39$99,798.70$81.015
2025-09-19$102,114.54$99,970.53$1,174.164
2025-09-22$103,205.82$101,061.81$1,091.277
2025-09-23$104,007.73$101,916.73$801.915
2025-09-24$104,605.44$102,358.43$597.715
2025-09-25$105,183.18$102,862.96$577.744
2025-09-26$109,130.15$104,743.07$3,946.975
2025-09-29$108,347.31$104,092.45-$782.845
2025-09-30$108,372.44$104,859.37$25.136
2025-10-01$107,142.24$104,015.28-$1,230.205
2025-10-02$108,071.75$104,715.99$929.516
2025-10-03$108,879.75$105,524.00$808.007
2025-10-06$109,501.02$106,049.29$621.276
2025-10-07$110,786.35$106,477.58$1,285.335
2025-10-08$109,100.07$104,807.24-$1,686.286
2025-10-09$107,882.62$102,239.08-$1,217.454
2025-10-10$110,651.46$104,664.71$2,768.846
2025-10-13$109,811.51$103,732.08-$839.956
2025-10-14$110,131.51$103,893.60$320.006
2025-10-15$111,036.14$104,139.33$904.635
2025-10-16$109,807.82$103,329.94-$1,228.325
2025-10-17$111,204.32$106,164.22$1,396.505
2025-10-20$107,746.44$104,457.98-$3,457.884
2025-10-21$107,590.67$104,855.60-$155.763
2025-10-22$110,577.59$107,087.19$2,986.924
2025-10-23$110,270.73$106,636.70-$306.865
2025-10-24$109,161.15$106,477.30-$1,109.584
2025-10-27$108,792.54$105,672.40-$368.615
2025-10-28$109,883.00$106,546.82$1,090.474
2025-10-29$113,119.20$108,746.84$3,236.205
2025-10-30$112,559.31$109,255.72-$559.903
2025-10-31$112,495.46$109,776.75-$63.853
2025-11-03$110,710.38$108,953.94-$1,785.073
2025-11-04$111,690.69$108,710.02$980.314
2025-11-05$111,501.75$108,753.99-$188.943
2025-11-06$111,713.08$108,794.56$211.326
2025-11-07$114,020.67$110,596.87$2,307.605
2025-11-10$114,646.87$111,860.78$626.205
2025-11-11$115,735.42$111,935.66$1,088.555
2025-11-12$115,839.59$112,459.92$104.174
2025-11-13$114,466.23$111,369.44-$1,373.364
2025-11-14$114,290.89$110,574.91-$175.336
2025-11-17$113,848.31$110,823.74-$442.583
2025-11-18$113,795.30$110,835.18-$53.024
2025-11-19$112,946.87$110,001.83-$848.434
2025-11-20$112,491.41$109,947.04-$455.466
2025-11-21$112,867.74$110,189.99$376.334
2025-11-24$112,658.20$109,806.89-$209.546
2025-11-25$114,957.53$111,764.74$2,299.335
2025-11-26$118,115.07$114,137.29$3,157.543
2025-11-28$119,640.89$115,079.80$1,525.823
2025-12-01$119,015.76$114,228.66-$625.145
2025-12-02$120,557.55$115,014.95$1,541.794
2025-12-03$120,411.04$115,438.55-$146.524
2025-12-04$121,711.43$116,876.27$1,300.404
2025-12-05$120,688.37$114,963.11-$1,023.074
2025-12-08$121,156.77$114,156.11$468.415
2025-12-09$121,171.30$114,231.29$14.526
2025-12-10$123,050.22$114,225.84$1,878.925
2025-12-11$121,385.22$112,704.66-$1,665.004
2025-12-12$121,444.07$112,859.91$58.855
2025-12-15$119,970.95$111,309.53-$1,473.125
2025-12-16$122,461.88$113,440.49$2,490.935
2025-12-17$121,418.10$112,852.46-$1,043.785
2025-12-18$123,222.54$114,135.87$1,804.434
2025-12-19$123,947.84$115,364.75$725.314
2025-12-22$125,297.16$117,885.79$1,349.324
2025-12-23$125,655.97$117,562.49$358.813
2025-12-24$130,181.39$119,115.03$4,525.423
2025-12-26$126,207.66$117,977.42-$3,973.734
2025-12-29$128,765.54$117,987.75$2,557.886
2025-12-30$125,711.92$114,828.11-$3,053.624
2025-12-31$125,360.81$114,481.31-$351.114
2026-01-02$128,813.99$117,063.22$3,453.186
2026-01-05$130,004.39$116,961.09$1,190.405
2026-01-06$129,371.37$116,130.57-$633.036
2026-01-07$129,184.01$115,943.22-$187.367
2026-01-08$131,308.00$116,762.98$2,123.996
2026-01-09$133,985.74$118,974.66$2,677.735
2026-01-12$134,091.66$119,822.55$105.924
2026-01-13$135,877.86$120,101.40$1,786.206
2026-01-14$134,316.20$118,796.61-$1,561.666
2026-01-15$132,712.49$117,900.69-$1,603.714
2026-01-16$134,845.09$123,427.27$2,132.616
2026-01-20$134,680.03$126,822.37-$165.066
2026-01-21$135,085.19$127,664.95$405.156
2026-01-22$138,141.41$130,684.61$3,056.234
2026-01-23$141,357.31$137,031.30$3,215.905
2026-01-26$140,439.58$136,565.34-$917.736
2026-01-27$143,088.99$139,872.90$2,649.416
2026-01-28$145,233.35$134,925.22$2,144.366
2026-01-29$139,924.16$129,616.03-$5,309.197
2026-01-30$137,447.42$123,503.73-$2,476.745
2026-02-02$140,991.45$127,047.75$3,544.027
2026-02-03$142,414.76$128,298.21$1,423.316
2026-02-04$139,129.75$126,310.41-$3,285.005
2026-02-05$140,101.97$126,405.89$972.214
2026-02-06$140,714.98$127,018.90$613.027
2026-02-09$139,879.35$126,183.27-$835.647
2026-02-10$141,575.64$127,549.33$1,696.305
2026-02-11$138,170.67$124,890.22-$3,404.976
2026-02-12$139,143.39$125,836.58$972.726
2026-02-13$136,818.10$122,906.73-$2,325.296
2026-02-17$140,066.73$125,594.16$3,248.646
2026-02-18$140,419.26$125,822.29$352.526
2026-02-19$142,067.88$127,475.72$1,648.626
2026-02-20$143,379.06$128,098.67$1,311.195
2026-02-23$143,486.41$127,852.82$107.356
2026-02-24$144,525.19$129,004.99$1,038.786
2026-02-25$143,626.06$127,548.19-$899.146
2026-02-26$146,111.70$129,837.59$2,485.656
2026-02-27$148,044.38$131,312.23$1,932.676
2026-03-02$146,680.69$131,453.98-$1,363.685
2026-03-03$145,867.35$130,917.56-$813.354
2026-03-04$145,594.61$132,994.53-$272.734
2026-03-05$150,089.27$137,594.91$4,494.665
2026-03-06$149,539.45$138,543.10-$549.824
2026-03-09$150,923.18$136,208.34$1,383.735
2026-03-10$150,794.62$137,718.91-$128.564
2026-03-11$152,503.60$140,379.58$1,708.985
2026-03-12$151,660.89$139,789.85-$842.716
2026-03-13$150,890.82$138,074.24-$770.075
2026-03-16$150,401.24$138,704.83-$489.594
2026-03-17$148,380.87$138,530.56-$2,020.374
2026-03-18$146,360.05$136,996.02-$2,020.826
2026-03-19$145,445.20$136,673.05-$914.845
2026-03-20$142,005.91$132,162.37-$3,439.296
2026-03-23$143,176.63$133,813.38$1,170.716
2026-03-24$145,067.40$134,765.30$1,890.774
2026-03-25$143,596.98$134,745.91-$1,470.425
2026-03-26$145,810.33$137,243.33$2,213.356
2026-03-27$145,419.84$136,852.84-$390.497
2026-03-30$147,653.08$138,939.56$2,233.245
2026-03-31$148,728.61$136,971.09$1,075.534
2026-04-01$149,308.55$138,394.73$579.955
2026-04-02$149,662.73$138,748.91$354.177
2026-04-06$149,426.20$138,611.94-$236.536
2026-04-07$150,429.36$135,079.55$1,003.165
2026-04-08$150,287.40$135,672.39-$141.975
2026-04-09$150,056.16$135,364.09-$231.246
2026-04-10$150,660.29$136,250.37$604.136
2026-04-13$151,207.62$135,592.03$547.346
2026-04-14$151,571.24$135,868.70$363.615
2026-04-15$152,602.09$136,951.95$1,030.856
2026-04-16$152,267.68$135,027.04-$334.416
2026-04-17$152,678.67$136,357.81$410.996
2026-04-20$152,507.18$136,250.46-$171.506
2026-04-21$153,924.43$137,667.71$1,417.257
2026-04-22$152,867.43$137,375.42-$1,057.004
2026-04-23$152,158.64$136,765.39-$708.784
2026-04-24$151,731.79$137,357.22-$426.854
2026-04-27$151,157.42$137,610.33-$574.374
2026-04-28$151,034.16$139,432.52-$123.264
2026-04-29$153,418.20$140,004.18$2,384.044
2026-04-30$154,445.04$139,532.63$1,026.844
2026-05-01$154,513.30$140,371.29$68.275
2026-05-04$154,656.02$139,067.93$142.724
2026-05-05$155,889.94$137,821.04$1,233.925
2026-05-06$156,955.29$138,365.02$1,065.345
2026-05-07$157,723.82$139,131.35$768.546
2026-05-08$161,323.12$142,128.99$3,599.294
2026-05-11$161,695.29$143,043.84$372.186
2026-05-12$162,634.85$143,684.13$939.556
2026-05-13$161,281.88$142,542.80-$1,352.976
2026-05-14$159,739.97$141,696.66-$1,541.906
2026-05-15$161,049.36$143,482.23$1,309.396
2026-05-18$160,328.03$142,808.68-$721.346
2026-05-19$159,108.15$140,499.59-$1,219.876
2026-05-20$158,719.57$139,885.97-$388.596
2026-05-21$158,329.56$139,579.73-$390.016
2026-05-22$157,060.92$138,426.64-$1,268.645
2026-05-26$156,098.94$136,806.51-$961.986
2026-05-27$158,107.69$138,560.87$2,008.756
2026-05-28$157,654.31$137,887.29-$453.386
2026-05-29$157,485.06$138,524.30-$169.246
2026-06-01$158,077.04$139,116.27$591.977
2026-06-02$157,255.12$138,753.26-$821.926
2026-06-03$157,416.44$138,445.32$161.336
2026-06-04$154,004.32$135,133.93-$3,412.126
2026-06-05$154,001.48$135,131.09-$2.847
2026-06-08$152,059.37$133,188.98-$1,942.117
2026-06-09$152,042.28$133,171.89-$17.097
2026-06-10$150,503.98$131,482.36-$1,538.306
2026-06-11$152,259.48$132,422.35$1,755.505
2026-06-12$152,824.48$132,208.68$565.006
2026-06-15$150,908.72$130,981.37-$1,915.776
2026-06-16$151,208.94$131,281.59$300.227
2026-06-17$149,913.40$129,986.05-$1,295.547
2026-06-18$148,755.61$128,828.26-$1,157.797
2026-06-22$146,325.04$126,397.70-$2,430.567
2026-06-23$143,508.54$123,581.20-$2,816.507
2026-06-24$145,051.17$125,512.92$1,542.635
2026-06-25$143,767.72$124,341.08-$1,283.456
2026-06-26$143,147.16$123,720.52-$620.567
2026-06-29$144,178.44$124,751.80$1,031.287
2026-06-30$143,522.12$124,471.92-$656.326
2026-07-01$144,050.73$124,817.58$528.614
2026-07-02$144,992.26$126,151.16$941.536
2026-07-06$145,738.89$126,823.53$746.635
2026-07-07$145,672.62$126,513.66-$66.276
2026-07-08$145,551.16$125,911.37-$121.465
2026-07-09$144,719.80$125,521.36-$831.365
2026-07-10$145,533.96$127,107.28$814.164
2026-07-13$146,616.07$128,189.38$1,082.107
2026-07-14$146,644.87$128,258.03$28.806
2026-07-15$145,178.92$126,982.50-$1,465.954
2026-07-16$146,310.32$128,589.96$1,131.406
2026-07-17$146,788.66$129,149.68$478.346
2026-07-20$149,588.93$131,041.61$2,800.273
2026-07-21$150,830.69$132,837.83$1,241.764
2026-07-22$150,307.27$133,525.42-$523.425
2026-07-23$150,437.68$132,611.82$130.405
2026-07-24$149,186.00$129,397.47-$1,251.685
2026-07-27$148,010.41$127,319.59-$1,175.595
2026-07-28$150,826.80$129,434.78$2,816.386
2026-07-29$151,316.02$129,924.00$489.227
2026-07-30$150,670.50$129,552.42-$645.526
2026-07-31$149,503.31$128,385.23-$1,167.197
2026-08-03$148,277.31$127,108.92-$1,226.006
2026-08-04$149,339.79$128,048.71$1,062.476
2026-08-05$150,270.18$128,588.24$930.406
2026-08-06$151,470.62$129,559.02$1,200.445
2026-08-07$154,559.72$132,179.56$3,089.106
2026-08-10$154,577.72$132,385.93$18.006
2026-08-11$156,067.98$133,467.96$1,490.265
2026-08-12$154,827.45$131,815.98-$1,240.524
2026-08-13$155,476.22$132,713.77$648.775
2026-08-14$156,184.33$133,779.84$708.115
2026-08-17$155,386.26$133,359.44-$798.074
2026-08-18$157,135.40$134,894.90$1,749.134
2026-08-19$157,311.30$135,830.18$175.904
2026-08-20$159,245.60$137,043.80$1,934.304
2026-08-21$159,138.22$136,530.36-$107.384
2026-08-24$158,603.94$135,959.29-$534.285
2026-08-25$158,265.71$136,051.84-$338.246
2026-08-26$159,618.77$137,104.53$1,353.076
2026-08-27$158,351.18$135,992.93-$1,267.596
2026-08-28$158,306.83$136,635.72-$44.354
2026-08-31$158,251.98$137,242.60-$54.856
2026-09-01$158,698.24$137,747.34$446.266
2026-09-02$159,755.85$138,526.15$1,057.615
2026-09-03$159,386.75$138,510.97-$369.106
2026-09-04$159,889.27$138,910.94$502.526
2026-09-08$160,824.68$139,846.36$935.427
2026-09-09$158,238.36$140,283.16-$2,586.324
2026-09-10$160,012.87$140,533.88$1,774.514